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Weekly Gas Market Analysis Report

CW 16

  • Overall, spot prices traded lower after the ceasefire between the US and Iran, despite negotiations had been stopped on the weekend and the US started a blockade at the Strait of Hormusz on Monday. Of course, prices had been following developments up and down with huge movements, however yesterday TTF closed at 43,34 EUR/MWh, which is 9.34 EUR/MWh (or 18%) lower than one week ago where TTF closed at 52.68 EUR/MWh (07.04.2026).
  • Demand was considerably lower the week ending April 12th than one week earlier (nearly minus 200 mcm/d). As domestic and Norway supply was relatively stable and flows from Russia and LNG Sendout was just somewhat lower, nearly 165 mcm/d had been going to storage.
  • This week, demand should be equal to last week. On supply side reduced Norway flows are expected based on maintenance, therefore storage injection should be somewhat lower than last week’s level.
  • Next week Norway flows should be further reduced and also LNG sendout is expected lower, but this will more than balanced by reduced demand, therefore storage injection should stay equal.
  • The TTF forward curve was shifted lower by around 10 EUR/MWh until end of winter 2027 and even the following storage year was going down more than 5 EUR/MWh. On the far end of the curve prices softened around 2 EUR/MWh.
  • TTF Sum27/Win27 spread lost 80 ct/MWh and trades around 1.10 EUR/MWh (TTF) and 1.00 EUR/MWh (AVTP).
  • Oil futures moved sharply lower week-on-week, as Brent finished last Wednesday at 109.27 USD/bbl, before falling down 15 USD/bbl as markets positioned ahead of upcoming U.S.-Iran talks on the weekend. The sharp pullback followed earlier optimism around the temporary ceasefire agreement, but prices continued to hover near $100 per barrel amid ongoing supply uncertainty.
  • Even if Gulf exports recover, the risk of renewed price strength remains elevated despite recent losses. A significant portion of Middle Eastern production, major refining and petrochemical facilities have been shut in due to storage constraints and export disruptions, with outages expected to increase further in the near term. The scale of these disruptions is shifting the global balance toward a supply deficit, reversing earlier expectations of surplus.
  • Goldman Sachs trimmed its second-quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, late on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
  • On stock markets, sentiment was bullish during last week, of course with volatility on news flow around ceasefires and blockades, but U.S. stock market showed resilience against oil prices rebounding back with all major indices in positive territory, for some indices we have seen 9th consecutive positive trading days in a row. Overall, investors remain hopeful that a deal would eventually be struck between the U.S. and Iran. The S&P 500 started with 6,617 last Wednesday and ended yesterday at 6,967 (+5%).
  • Weekly Gas Market Analysis Report CW 16

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